World Economic Outlook, October 2018: Challenges to Steady Growth by International Monetary FundGlobal growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018-19--0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)--such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk--have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
World Economic and Financial Surveys
Full Text PDF. Among advanced economies, growth divergences between the United States on one side, and Europe and Japan on the other, are widening. Growth is also becoming more uneven among emerging market and developing economies, reflecting the combined influences of rising oil prices, higher yields in the United States, sentiment shifts following escalating trade tensions, and domestic political and policy uncertainty. While financial conditions remain generally benign, these factors have resulted in capital inflow reductions, higher financing costs, and exchange rate pressures, more acute in countries with weaker fundamentals or higher political risks. High-frequency data present a mixed picture of near-term global activity. Retail sales volumes appear to have picked up in the second quarter, and survey data of purchasing managers for the service sector remain generally strong.
Brazil Canada China France. Germany India Italy Japan. Mexico Nigeria Russia Saudi Arabia. The World Economic Outlook WEO database contains selected macroeconomic data series from the statistical appendix of the World Economic Outlook report , which presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups and in many individual countries. Use this database to find data on national accounts, inflation, unemployment rates, balance of payments, fiscal indicators, trade for countries and country groups aggregates , and commodity prices whose data are reported by the IMF. Data are available from to the present, and projections are given for the next two years.
Tuesday, October 16 Presenters Ms. Summary The IMF forecasts steady global economic growth for —19, but downside risks have risen. One decade into the recovery from the global financial crisis, how has output evolved across countries compared to pre-crisis trends? And will inflation in emerging market economies remain low and stable as global financial conditions normalize? On October 16, Ms. Francesca Caselli and Mr.
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) database contains selected macroeconomic data series from the statistical appendix of the World Economic Outlook report.
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Full Text PDF. The global economy continues to expand, but third-quarter growth has disappointed in some economies. Idiosyncratic factors new fuel emission standards in Germany, natural disasters in Japan weighed on activity in large economies. While the December 1 announcement that tariff hikes have been put on hold for 90 days in the US-China trade dispute is welcome, the possibility of tensions resurfacing in the spring casts a shadow over global economic prospects. High-frequency data signal subdued momentum in the fourth quarter.